The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink About1/14/2025 - Preliminary Revenue Outlook FY26 General Govt Fund Operating Revenues and Budget IssuesPreliminary Revenue Outlook for FY2026 General Government Fund Operating Revenues and Budget Issues Board of Supervisors Budget Work Session January 14, 2025 Introduction •Revenue projections based on one revenue team meeting •Projections earlier than previous years •As additional information is received these projections will change •Growth is returning to more normal levels 2 3 Category FY 2024 Actual FY 2025 Adopted FY 2026 Projection FY 2025 Adopted to FY 2026 Projection Change Percent Change Real Estate Taxes $ 121,527,554 $ 129,080,327 $ 137,472,602 $8,392,275 6.50% Personal Property Taxes 45,392,415 44,500,000 45,000,000 500,000 1.12% Business License Taxes 9,003,735 9,100,000 9,614,000 514,000 5.65% Sales Tax 15,785,507 17,000,000 17,242,500 242,500 1.43% Other Local Taxes 27,608,520 28,620,000 29,135,000 515,000 1.80% Other Fees & Revenue 10,298,071 10,313,382 10,650,000 336,618 3.26% Intergovernmental 20,507,486 21,502,794 21,550,000 47,206 0.22% Total Revenue Projections (net beginning balance) $ 250,123,288 $ 260,116,503 $ 270,664,102 $10,547,599 4.05% FY 2026 Projected General Government Revenue Outlook Real Estate Revenue 4 Fiscal Year % Inc/Dec Over Prior Year Actuals FY 2022 5.15% FY 2023 7.30% FY 2024 7.21% FY 2025 (Projected)7.20% FY 2026 (Projected)5.52% •Assessment growth projected at 7.47% for CY 2025 (Base growth of 6.97%, new construction 0.50%) •Projected to exceed budget at FY 2025 year end due to increase in CY 2025 assessment Through 6 months FY 2024 FY 2025 $ Change % Change $57,925,733 $62,196,021 $4,270,288 7.37% $102.08 $112.54 $121.67 $129.08 $137.47 $105.64 $113.35 $121.53 $130.28 $80.0 $90.0 $100.0 $110.0 $120.0 $130.0 $140.0 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 Projection Mi l l i o n s Budget Actual Personal Property Revenue 5 Fiscal Year % Inc/Dec Over Prior Year Actuals FY 2022 -0.92% FY 2023 11.64% FY 2024 10.45% FY 2025 (Projected)-0.86% FY 2026 (Projected)0.00% •Roughly 90% of this revenue source is collected in May and June •Used vehicle values continue to decrease but are offset by higher prices for new vehicles Through 6 months FY 2024 FY 2025 $ Change % Change $3,063,065 $3,522,775 $459,710 15.01% $33.50 $40.81 $45.00 $44.50 $45.00 $36.81 $41.10 $45.39 $45.00 $0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 $40.0 $45.0 $50.0 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 Projection Mi l l i o n s Budget Actual Sales Tax Revenue 6 Fiscal Year % Inc/Dec Over Prior Year Actuals FY 2022 9.36% FY 2023 7.11% FY 2024 4.14% FY 2025 (Projected)4.53% FY 2026 (Projected)4.50% •Inflation impacting growth with consumer spending remaining high •Preliminary information for the 2024 Holiday Season indicates modest growth which we will see in February as revenue is two months delayed Through 5 months FY 2024 FY 2025 $ Change % Change $6,442,474 $6,584,909 $142,435 2.21% $12.20 $14.97 $15.80 $17.00 $17.24 $14.15 $15.16 $15.79 $16.50 $0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 Projection Mi l l i o n s FY 2022 through FY 2026 Preliminary Projection Budget Actual Budget Issues Revenue Increase over FY 2025 Adopted Budget $ 10,547,599 Transfer to Schools (Estimated per Current Revenue Sharing Formula)4,187,881 Pay increases for employees (approx. $1.5 million per 1%)TBD Health insurance increase TBD Funding for 18 FTEs for Bonsack Fire & Rescue 1,800,000 Children Services Act (CSA)1,250,000 Transfer to Capital per Debt Model 530,000 Visit Virginia’s Blue Ridge (Share 42.9% of Hotel/Motel Tax Revenue)85,714 Blue Ridge Behavioral Health 175,787 Contribution to Fund Balance and Contingency to Meet Policy 1,942,369 School Resource Officers (4)250,000 Balance Remaining $ 325,848 7 Budget Issues •Site Development for Economic Development •Capital Contribution for CIP •Fleet Replacement •Tax Relief for Elderly and Disabled and Veterans •Other Regional Program Increases •Overtime Cost Increases •Virginia Department of Health Increase •Vehicle Maintenance Costs •Utility Cost Increases •Department Operating Requests 8 Summary •Revenue growth appears to be returning to more historical growth of change •Board will have limited flexibility for new initiatives •New Bonsack fire station has a significant budget impact •Still early in the process and revenue estimates will change •Continue to receive information and refine estimates 9 10 Next Steps Item 2025 Date FY 2024 –2025 Mid-Year Revenue and Expenditure Update January 28 Work Session –FY 2025 –2026 Revenue Outlook; County Fees & Charges Compendium February 11 Work Session –FY 2025 –2026 Compensation Update, Outside Agency Funding Work Session –FY 2026 –2035 Capital Improvement Program February 25 Public Hearing on Effective Tax Rate March 11 Briefing –County Administrator’s Proposed FY 2025 –2026 Operating Budget and Capital Improvement Program Work Session –Proposed FY 2026 Operating Budget (first of two)March 25 Public Hearing to Adopt 2025 Tax Rates Work Session –Proposed FY 2026 Operating Budget (second of two)April 8 Public Hearing: Operating and Capital Budgets (first of two)April 22 Public Hearing: Operating and Capital Budgets (second of two) First Reading of FY 2025-2026 Operating and Capital Budget Ordinances May 13 Second reading of FY 2025-2026 Operating and Capital Budget Ordinances Resolution to approve Operating and Capital budgets, Revenues and Expenditures for County and Schools May 27 Comments 11